🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.