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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."